US, Ukraine allies consider near-total ban on exports to Russia, 20 April 2023

Some of Ukraine’s key allies including the US are considering moving closer to an outright ban on most exports to Russia, a potentially significant tightening of economic pressure on President Vladimir Putin over his war.

Group of Seven officials are discussing the idea ahead of a leaders summit in Japan in May, according to people familiar with the matter, and the aim would be to include European Union member states in the crackdown. The proposal is still being debated and could change, the people said.

The approach being discussed by diplomatic envoys would flip the existing sanctions regime around, with all exports banned unless exempted, the people said. Under the current criteria all exports are allowed unless sanctioned. 

If G-7 leaders endorse the move at the summit, exactly what would be excluded would then have to be agreed, with medicines and agricultural products — including food — very likely to stay exempted, one of the people said.

But there are potentially serious obstacles to implementation. To come into force in the EU, the new criteria would need to be adopted by all members, and that would set off a testy debate given the likely backlash from companies that still export goods to Russia, alongside the risk of retaliation by Moscow.

If a near-total embargo on exports is imposed, much of the remaining trade flows from these countries with Russia would evaporate. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council declined to comment on the prospect of such a move...