"Roundtable: The Belt and Road at 10" 8 September 2023

Ten years on, how has the BRI evolved? And what should we expect from the initiative as it enters its second decade? China Dialogue asked six experts for their thoughts as the BRI turns 10 today.

Ma Tianjie, freelance writer in Beijing focusing on environmental governance and Chinese overseas investment:

Ten years later, there is a proliferation of policies and guidelines on “greening the BRI”. Climate and biodiversity considerations have featured ever more prominently in BRI conversations... As we move into the second decade of the BRI, China’s stated intention of increasing support for green and clean energy along the BRI would also benefit not just from statements of intent, but practical industrial policy intervention.

Chen Yunnan, research fellow, Overseas Development Institute’s Development and Public Finance programme:

As China’s domestic economy and its priorities have shifted, so will the contours of the BRI. One of the biggest shifts has been in financing... Already, we’ve seen a shift away from debt-financed megaprojects to a focus on “small and beautiful” projects on the BRI. Going forward we may see a move towards more innovative means of green finance. China’s low-cost clean technology can also be a huge boon for developing countries in paving a low-carbon growth pathway – conditional on substantial financing...

Lina Benabdallah, associate professor of politics and international affairs, Wake Forest University:

As a relatively newer initiative in Africa, the BRI has not yet been fully put through the test of time. Yet, we know from Afrobarometer surveys conducted in 2021 that 63% of surveyed Africans believed China’s economic and political influence in their countries to be positive... For Africans, the rivalry over these strategic investments and critical raw minerals can be a blessing as well as a curse. African leaders and stakeholders more broadly have to position themselves as active partakers in global economic trends such as the energy transition.

Margaret Myers, director, Asia & Latin America Program Inter-American Dialogue

The past few years have been characterised by a tapering off of Chinese economic engagement with Latin America... But investment and finance have slowed as Chinese companies focus on smaller projects in sectors supportive of China’s own economic growth objectives. Aside from a pervasive focus on acquiring energy generation and transmission assets, Chinese interest in BRI-esque megaprojects has in many cases been replaced by a focus on technological and innovation-related ventures and the minerals and metals that support them.

Oyintarelado (Tarela) Moses, data analyst, Boston University Global Development Policy Center

...BRI financing expansion elevated risks to the environmental sustainability and debt profiles of BRI recipients. Chinese loans were heavily directed to fossil fuel energy projects and some supported projects overlap with environmentally sensitive territories, posing risks to recipient countries, biodiversity and local communities... China now appears to be addressing financial and environmental issues presented by BRI funding to China and recipients. Chinese overseas lenders are encouraged to finance in smaller values for more environmentally and socially beneficial projects.

Zofeen Ebrahim, journalist, Pakistan

...in the 2010s, a new wave of Chinese workers came to Pakistan. This time they were bankers, company owners, engineers, construction and mine workers, working on infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But for the most part, we did not interact with them. Along with the huge language barrier, most Chinese workers live in compounds on their project sites under tight security...This opacity and lack of contact between Chinese and Pakistanis has contributed to mistrust and suspicion about Chinese projects...as CPEC moves into its second decade, it needs to gain the trust and understanding of Pakistani people. Instead of a top-down approach, ask local people what they want, give them ownership and agency over this initiative.