23 May 2024

Do global companies that sell satellite photos thoroughly vet their customers? Officially, both Maxar and Planet do not cooperate with Russia. However, according to an investigation by journalists from The Atlantic, someone is ordering photos of locations in Ukraine that were hit by missile strikes a few days later. This "coincidence" happens too frequently to be just a coincidence. The Atlantic discovered over 350 instances of satellite photo purchases that might be linked to Russian missile strikes on Ukraine.

Analysts at the Molfar agency decided to verify this hypothesis and conducted a post-investigation based on The Atlantic's material.

Journalists from The Atlantic are investigating a potential link between the sale of commercial satellite images and Russian missile strikes on Ukraine. The author, Graeme Wood, contacted a company that analyzes these images, and they noticed a recurring pattern. First, someone buys a satellite image of a particular area, and a few days later, a Russian missile hits that location. This scenario has been repeated multiple times throughout 2022.

The head of a company that analyzes satellite images identified 350 Russian missile strikes in the first year of the war, which occurred deep within Ukrainian territory...

As reported by The Atlantic, the pattern identified pertains to 2022: satellite images of locations were often ordered a few days before those locations were subjected to missile strikes.

Molfar analysts examined 321 instances of Russian missile strikes on Ukraine that occurred from February 24 to December 31, 2022. Particularly significant in this analysis are the images of Ukrainian territories where active combat is not happening...

Out of 321 analyzed cases, 277 confirmed that satellite images of the exact locations that were later targeted were ordered a few days before the strikes. For example, nine satellite images of this area were taken two weeks before the attack on the Zaporizhzhia Hydroelectric Power Plant in March 2024. The attack occurred on March 22, indicating a possible connection between the image orders and the strike...

Molfar analysts confirmed The Atlantic's investigation and uncovered new evidence that satellite images are being used for preliminary surveillance of targets and adjusting subsequent strikes. HUMINT investigation proved that cooperation between Russians and Maxar's intermediary companies is possible. Despite sanctions and statements about restrictions, this industry continues to fuel Russian attacks against Ukraine.

Analyzing the number of images "before" and "after" the shelling of different territories reveals a clear pattern that confirms the dependence between satellite images and strikes. This indicates the targeted use of this data for military actions, specifically for adjusting subsequent attacks.