"Aviation industry plans for growth ‘irreconcilable’ with Europe’s climate goals"

Europe’s aviation industry plans to double its passenger traffic by 2050 and will deplete its carbon budget as early as 2026

Europe’s aviation industry plans to double its passenger traffic by 2050 and will deplete its carbon budget as early as 2026, a new study by green group T&E (Transport & Environment) shows. Policy makers must act rapidly to address airport growth, frequent flying and under-taxation of the sector.

Passenger air traffic from EU airports will more than double in 2050 compared to 2019, if projections by aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing materialise. New analysis by T&E shows that aircraft will burn 59% more fuel [1] in 2050 than in 2019, despite improvements in efficiency. Concretely, in 2050, planes taking off from EU airports will still burn 21.1 Mt of fossil kerosene, a yearly extraction of 1.9 billion barrels of crude oil [2]. [...] 

Whilst some industry actors argue that SAFs are unavailable to buy and this is limiting emissions reduction in the sector, T&E points out that, at this level of growth, the benefits of SAF will be cancelled out. SAFs are only a viable solution without exponentially growing levels of traffic.

Under the Airbus and Boeing growth scenarios, by 2049, European aviation emissions will only be 3% lower than in 2019 [3]. And in 2050, when the EU pledged to have reached net zero GHG emissions, the sector will still emit 79 million tonnes of CO2. At this rate, Europe’s aviation sector will deplete its carbon budget by 2026, T&E finds. [...]

Jo Dardenne, aviation director at T&E:

“The numbers leave you speechless. The aviation industry’s plans for growth are completely irreconcilable with Europe’s climate goals and the scale of the climate crisis. In a year, the sector will have exceeded its carbon allowance. A paradigm shift and real climate leadership are needed now to address the problem, or Europe’s planes will be eating up everyone else's resources. The credibility of the sector is on the line.”

For now, the European Commission has no concrete plans to limit the aviation sector’s growth in its 2040 target. If no policies to address growth are introduced, Europe’s aviation emissions will not decrease fast enough. T&E urges the European Commission to present proposals to put an end to airport infrastructure growth in Europe, to keep corporate travel at 50% of 2019 levels, to address frequent flying and to reverse the under-taxation of the sector. Without such measures, if Airbus and Boeing's forecasts materialise, T&E estimates that, at European level, an additional 960 million tonnes of CO2 could be emitted between 2023 and 2050 compared with the European Commission's modelling. [...]

[1] This includes fossil kerosene, biofuels (many of which are not truly sustainable), and synthetic fuels (or e-kerosene).

[2] Based on EU refineries’ average yield of 9% in 2022.

[...]

Reuters reached out to Airbus and Boeing for comment but did not receive a response.