“150,000 Kenyan Jobs at Risk as AGOA Renewal Uncertainty Threatens $200M Textile Industry”, February 16, 2025

The United Aryan factory, a major textile producer in Nairobi, Kenya, is facing an uncertain future as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches its September 2025 expiration date. The factory, which produces 8 million pairs of jeans annually for US retailers like Walmart and JCPenney, relies on AGOA’s duty-free trade benefits to remain competitive. Now, with Donald Trump back in the White House, AGOA’s renewal remains in doubt, putting over 150,000 Kenyan livelihoods at risk and threatening a $200 million textile industry.

A Lifeline for Kenya’s Economy Now in Jeopardy Established in 2002, the United Aryan factory has played a crucial role in job creation and economic stability in Nairobi. The facility employs 10,000 workers directly, with thousands more relying on its operations for indirect income. Workers at the factory earn an average of $200 per month, a stable income in Kenya, and the factory’s presence has reduced crime rates in the area... Kenya’s garment industry has already weathered multiple economic…

Despite these setbacks, AGOA has kept the industry alive, allowing Kenyan manufacturers to remain competitive against low-cost Asian factories. “There were many times when we thought we should give up. But when you have 150,000 people dependent on you, you have a responsibility,” said Bedi. US Lawmakers Support AGOA—but Will Trump? Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have backed a 12-year extension for AGOA to ensure stability for African manufacturers. However, Trump’s free-trade skepticism has left the decision hanging in the balance. Economist Bedassa Tadesse warns that if AGOA is not renewed, US brands will shift production to cheaper Asian markets, devastating Kenya’s textile industry. “Trade policy decisions are no longer just based on cost-benefit analysis,” Tadesse said. Some experts argue that AGOA is crucial for US-Africa relations, especially after Trump cut billions in humanitarian aid. “AGOA is small change in Trump’s worldview, but it’s vital for US-African diplomacy,” said Witney Schneidman, a Brookings Institution expert. Bedi remains cautiously optimistic, believing that Trump will prioritize American retail interests. “America cannot produce what we are making…