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With San Antonio recently identified as one of the first places where Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) plans to arrest and deport people living in the country without legal status — an effort that began in late January — it’s unclear what the impact on the city’s economy could be.

But business owners and entire sectors are watching closely.

The American Immigration Council estimated in 2022 that there are more than 6 million workers lacking legal status across various industries in the U.S., with almost half working in California, Texas and Florida.

In Texas, 10% of the workforce is made up of workers who immigrated illegally, about twice as many as in most other states, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In late December, the Dallas Fed released results from its Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS). It showed respondents were more positive than negative about prospective economic conditions under the incoming presidential administration, though some worried about potential trade and immigration policy changes.

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“If this spreads fear in the larger immigrant community, so that people stop going out, stop shopping, stop going out to eat and so forth, for fear of the authorities, then you might see a broader impact,” said the economist Pia Orrenius, vice president of the Dallas Fed.

In the past few weeks, the restaurant owner we interviewed has had to allay the fears of workers who worry about ICE raids they’ve heard about in other places.

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