USA: Fears Trump campaign deportation promises threaten migrants' rights & working conditions, food security & prices
In the wake of the USA election in 2024, advocates, policymakers and workers themselves raised concerns for the treatment of migrant workers across the country. Ahead of the election President-elect Donald Trump promised to restrict immigration, roll out "mass deportations" of migrants. Business owners have warned such large-scale deportations will have a severe impact on the labour market and US economy.
Migrant workers are crucial to industries such as agriculture in the USA, which is reliant on both workers sponsored under the H2-A temporary labour migration scheme and undocumented workers, who form up to 50% of the agriculture workforce. A shortage of workers could have a direct impact on the country's food security and prices. Across industries, workers make up an estimated 8.5m of the 10.5m undocumented immigrants. Other industries dependent on migrant labour include leisure and hospitality, construction and healthcare.
A report from non-profit American Immigration Council examined Trump's immigration plans, finding the construction and agriculture industries would lose at least 1 in every 8 workers, and hospitality one in every 14 workers owing to deportations over undocumented status. A joint study from the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution and the Niskanen Center estimates the plans could curb US GDP growth in 2025 by as much as 0.4 percentage points, a direct effect of having fewer foreign workers producing goods and services. A recent model from Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts economic growth by 2028 could be 7.4% below baseline estimates if all 8.3 million undocumented workers were deported.