"Will Pakistan unrest dampen China’s belt and road ambitions?" 12 August 2024

Violent demonstrations in Pakistan’s southwestern port city of Gwadar in the past two weeks have exacerbated concerns about the country’s security situation and its impact on Chinese-funded megaprojects.

Despite Pakistan’s efforts to bolster security at China’s repeated request, the situation seems to be deteriorating, with a surge in unrest and violence targeting key Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, according to observers...

Ethnic tensions and separatist sentiments have been rife in the region, with the Baloch ethnic group long complaining about alleged human rights violations, the exploitation of mineral resources and the growing divide between their community and Pakistan’s biggest ethnic group – Punjabis...

Ashraf said the Chinese projects and citizens in Gwadar were not the real target of the latest round of protests...“The security threat to the Chinese is from terrorists who can infiltrate the protests and use them as cover to launch an attack...."

“Despite Pakistan’s efforts to bolster security at China’s request, the situation is deteriorating"... "If things do not improve, it will force China to be more selective and moderate in its [belt and road] projects in Pakistan. Now the CPEC is supposed to enter the new phase of capacity building, it will require more Chinese presence, rather than less."...

“To safeguard its projects and workers, China will likely press host governments like Pakistan to ramp up security. It may also turn to private Chinese security companies to protect its interests. However, a heavy-handed security approach risks inflaming local tensions,”...Going forward, China and Pakistan will need to frankly address differences over the implementation and security of CPEC and other projects....